Bronny James: The Future NBA Player Under the Spotlight

Introduction

With the 2024 NBA draft in the books, there is one major discussion that has dominated the NBA space over the last week. It isn’t about the number one overall pick. It isn’t about the outlook of these teams going into next season. It’s about a late second round pick, and for good reason, because his name is Bronny James, and he’s going to play in the NBA with LeBron James.

It’s a weird and unprecedented circumstance that the NBA has never encountered before: a player who many fans consider to be the greatest of all time playing in the NBA with his own son. A story so strange you’d think the NBA script writers outsourced their work to ChatGPT, picked the most absurd result, and called it a day.

But after two years of speculation, we now know with certainty that Bronny James will be an NBA player. Right on cue, the criticism of his merits and value as a future player in the NBA has already come pouring in. Scouts and GMs claim Bronny, as a prospect, isn’t even worth using a late second round pick on and that the real value lies in his last name and the leverage it comes with.

But how valuable is a second round pick really? Is Bronny a legitimate NBA player, or is he only in conversation solely because of who his dad is?

“Who do you want to play with?”

“Bronny is number one on my list; I got to be on a floor with Bronny.”

This is Ken Griffey, former major leaguer and three-time All-Star. This is Ken Griffey Jr., son of Ken Griffey. In 1990, these two did one of the coolest things a father and son can possibly do: they played in the MLB together. And when I say together, I don’t just mean they played in the MLB at the same time; they were on the same team. In fact, they weren’t just on the same team; they shared the same outfield with each other.

It’s probably the rarest and most badass thing you’ll ever see in sports. Making it to the big leagues is one thing, but playing in the big leagues next to your kid is a club exclusive to only these two. If that wasn’t incredible enough, on September 14th, 1990, the Griffeys pulled off something that you will never see again in your lifetime.

Put an inch back up there now. Well hit to center field, Devon White going back, gone! A two-run home run, and he hits one well to left center field, Dante Bichette. That’s back-to-back home runs! What else can these two do? The Griffeys were great, and they were the first and only father-son duo in the history of Major League Baseball.

But they weren’t the first father-son duo in professional sports. This is Gordie Howe, one of the greatest players to ever touch the ice. He won four Stanley Cups, six MVPs, held the NHL record for total career points at the time of his retirement, and is a member of the NHL’s 100th anniversary team.

Gordie had an incredible pro career as a hockey player, and yet out of all of his accomplishments, the coolest thing he ever did was this:

This is Mark and Marty Howe, Gordie’s sons, and he played professional hockey with them in both the WHA and the NHL for five seasons. Now, if you’re thinking that guy looks a little old to be playing professional sports, you’re right. Gordie began his career in the NHL in 1946 when he was just 18 years old. By the time he retired for good, he had a career that stretched from the 1940s to the 1980s.

Only with a career like this can a player even have a shot at playing in the league together with their son. Why exactly am I talking about home runs and Gordie Howe? Well, because they’re awesome, but also because of these two and what they’re about to accomplish in their own sport: LeBron and Bronny James, who are on track to be the first father-son duo to play together in the NBA.

This idea seemed far-fetched when LeBron first mentioned it years ago, but has now become a reality.

LeBron and Bronny Making History

But how legitimate is Bronny’s spot in the league, and is the backlash towards the Lakers selecting him with a second-round pick in the draft warranted? Well, to answer this question, we first need to know just how good Bronny is as a prospect and as an incoming NBA player.

Right now, nbadraft.net has Bronny James rated at an 88 overall across their 12 Prospect metrics. This overall rating puts him on the lower end of all second-round picks and future prospects over the last 3 years, but well within range of your typical mid to late first-rounder.

Now here are Bronny’s numbers during his one season of college basketball: Five points, three rebounds, and two assists per game on 47/30/69% shooting splits. These numbers, especially from a relatively undersized guard, do not scream NBA potential. But for perspective, here are the average Collegiate stats from every late second-round pick that played college basketball over the last 5 years. Even when compared to late second-round picks, Bronny’s numbers aren’t nearly as impressive.

In fact, Bronny is arguably the least productive College Prospect in NBA history. Here is a list of every player in the entire history of the NBA to be selected in the first two rounds of the draft that averaged less than five points, three rebounds, and three assists a game in college. And that’s it – just three players who were selected in the NBA draft with college numbers equal to or less than Bronny’s College numbers.

Compare that with the fact that these prospects had at least the benefit of having NBA frames and physical tools to be potentially built off of, and the case for Bronny warranting a pick in the NBA draft becomes more and more difficult to make.

Comparing Bronny Against Historical Draft Picks

But to really demonstrate exactly where Bronny falls amongst other second-round picks, here is a chart of every college basketball player selected in the second round of the draft over the last 10 years. The chart has box plus minus on the x-axis and minutes per game on the y-axis. It shows 298 selections spanning 10 drafts, with more than half of these players not even in the NBA today.

Most late draft picks, even the guys who go on to not even make a roster in the league, were first or maybe second options in their college program. Bronny, on the other hand, was an undersized rotational player on a sub .500 team.

It doesn’t take an NBA Scout to know that Bronny James’ collegiate career wasn’t that of your typical second-round draft pick.

Bronny’s College Performance and NBA Prospects

But how good is the typical second-round pick? With the rise of second-round sleepers in recent history, most notably players like Nikola Jokic, Jalen Brunson, Herb Jones, and Jordan Clarkson, the potential value of a second-round pick in the NBA draft is about as high as it’s ever been.

With the help of advanced metrics, the curtain has been pulled back on the value even a solid role player can provide to a winning team. Prospect scouting has gotten more comprehensive than ever before, and these second-round picks have held considerable weight within recent trades around the NBA.

But how valuable does that truly make them? Gathered from 10 years worth of draft classes from 2013 to 2022, data shows that on average, out of the 30 players drafted in the second round, about six of them won’t even suit up in the NBA. That’s about one in every five players selected in the second round that will never see a minute of action in the league.

Out of the 24 players who do make a roster in their rookie season, about 17 of them end up playing a second season in the NBA. Of those 17 players that are good enough to stick around for more than a few seasons, only about eight of them will go on to be a role player or rotational level player.

Go one step further, and on average, only four of these second-round picks will become a starting-caliber player in their career. That’s about one in every eight players selected in the second round. And finally, of the 298 players selected in the second round of the draft from 2013 to 2022, only two of them became All-Stars: Nikola Jokic and Jalen Brunson.

If we think about the last 10 years of second-round picks on a scale of box plus minus, with Nikola Jokic being on one end and the players who didn’t even make a roster on the other, then most players aren’t in the middle. In fact, they’re not even close. Most second-round picks fall way down here, somewhere in between what Basketball Reference would classify as an end-of-the-bench player and out of the league.

When considering how to use a second-round pick, the idea of drafting a guy who ends up being a real contributing player, a starter, or even a future MVP, the perceived opportunity costs can tend to outweigh the actual value of the pick.

Drafting a player of this caliber in the second round is like finding a diamond in the rough, but giving away a pick or a potential player that ends up being of this caliber would be a mistake that no front office wants to live with.

The Reality of Second Round Picks

But that doesn’t change the fact that the vast majority of the time, these second-round picks in the NBA draft go on to be these end-of-the-bench level players. Just out of curiosity, does anyone know who the last few 55th overall picks in the draft were and how their careers are turning out?

Last year’s 55th overall pick has played one game in the NBA. The one before that has played 23 games in two seasons. The 55th pick in 2021, Aaron Wiggins, is actually having himself a solid career so far, but the one before him is out of the league. The one before that one is also out of the league. He’s also out of the league, out of the league, out of the league, was never in the league, out of the league, and out of the league.

As a late second-rounder, if Bronny can contribute on any level in the NBA, he has already exceeded his draft value. And that’s really the proposition in all of this. It would be incredible if Bronny developed into a Davon Mitchell or Aaron Holiday caliber player, but the reality is if Bronny can provide any net positive value to his team, then selecting him in the draft will have been a great pick.

There has never been a player projected to go this late in the draft with any expectations on what they should or will do in the league. These late draft picks have historically been reserved for players who might have been overlooked, players who maybe underperform their potential at the Collegiate level, players who organizations are willing to roll the dice on because there’s virtually no opportunity costs associated with late second-round picks.

It’s all upside at this point in the draft. If they don’t work out, well that’s typical. If they do work out, well then they’ve beaten the odds. And the very large point being overlooked in all of this talk about potential and value to the team and X’s and O’s: LeBron James has the opportunity to play basketball with his kid in the NBA.

The Impact of Nepotism and Legacy

Let’s just be honest, this is blatant nepotism – a classic case of it’s who you know, not what you know.

But nepotism has ran rampid in the NBA for decades and no one cared. Countless players, coaches, executives, and owners got their shot with far less merit than Bronny has. But now here we are sitting around talking about the integrity of a man who’s played 21 seasons in the league and his son because they made the most of an otherwise low-value 55th pick in the draft, and the nepotism leaned in their favor this time around.

We can criticize this decision all we want, preach about how this move was a breach of ethics, a slap in the face of the game we love. But then we would all be hypocrites because there isn’t a man on Earth who would pass upon the chance to play in the NBA with his son, even if it meant pulling a few strings to make it happen.

Conclusion

As much as Bronny benefits from sharing the same last name as arguably the best basketball player of all time, that tag has also come with equal scrutiny.

We have never seen a late second-round pick get discussed and limelight like we’ve seen with Bronny. But we’ve also never seen a late second-round flyer get completely dissected and criticized like this.

LeBron and Bronny have a chance to do something that has never been done in the history of the NBA, and that is worth more than any late second-round pick will ever be.